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Real Work Force – 06/30/14

03 Jul

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for June 2014 showing an decrease in the unemployment rate from 6.3% to 6.1% with a better than expected 228,000  jobs created.

The Gray Lady’s cheerleaders applauded:

The economy accelerated in June, with employers adding 288,000 jobs, well above the rate of hiring recorded in the first five months of 2014 and another sign that growth is finally rebounding.The Labor Department also said on Thursday that the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point, to 6.1 percent, the lowest since September 2008, when the economy’s fortunes turned sharply lower as Lehman Brothers collapsed and the financial crisis ensued.Nearly six years later, some of the scars remain — like a historically low rate of Americans in the work force. But the job market has been showing signs of health, even as the overall economic growth rate has been anemic.

A -2.9% GDP is “anemic”??  I’m sure Reagan’s 7.9% GDP was anemic as well.

At Forbes, a pin was stuck in the silver lining:

The labor force participation rate, however, was stagnant at 62.8% for the third month in a row. At 59% the employment-population ratio was little changed from the prior month. “Perhaps the only disappointment might be that average hourly earnings growth remains subdued,” wrote RBS’ Sharif. Hourly earnings gained just 0.2% in June, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.0%. The workweek was steady at 34.5 hours.

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

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RWF - 20140630 - Real Work Force - 01

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After the April nosedive, the rate is struggling to rise back to the levels of the prior year.  There was little change in the labor force number this month, so while 288,000 jobs is a good headline, only 81,000 net jobs were added.

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

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RWF - 20140630 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

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Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

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RWF - 20140630 - Labor Force - 01

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Population Estimate from census.gov

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RWF - 20140630 - Population Estimate - 01

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Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

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Posted by on July 3, 2014 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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