If you wonder why the Federal Government can’t seem to contain spending, it must be the rose-colored glasses being donned at the CBO. The Federal Debt has increased every year since 1968. Put another way, we haven’t paid off $1.00 of our National Debt since 1968.
But, last week, the CBO Released a document entitled “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021” containing information on projected tax revenues and budgets… …and thus the budget deficit. Here are the projected tax revenues:
| Year | Tax $ | Increase |
| 2010 | 2162 | N/A |
| 2011 | 2228 | 3.05% |
| 2012 | 2555 | 14.68% |
| 2013 | 3090 | 20.94% |
| 2014 | 3442 | 11.39% |
| 2015 | 3651 | 6.07% |
| 2016 | 3832 | 4.96% |
| 2017 | 4075 | 6.34% |
| 2018 | 4275 | 4.91% |
| 2019 | 4489 | 5.01% |
| 2020 | 4712 | 4.97% |
| 2021 | 4963 | 5.33% |
| Average | 7.97% |
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What struck me immediately was the wildly speculative increase in Tax Revenues in 2013 and over the entirety of the projection. I would think a 6% increase in tax revenues to be unrealistic, but a 20% increase in 2013?
I’m not the smartest guy in the world, but if I go to my boss and tell him in two years that we are going to increase productivity, output, or any other measure by a sudden 20%, he’s going to laugh me out of the office.
Even so, the CBO is projecting the average increase per year over the next 10 years to be ~ 8%. During Clinton’s supposed heyday years of (non-existent) balanced budgets, the Tax Revenue increase (1990 – 2000 multi-year average) never exceeded 7%. Only ONE year-over-year increase exceeded 10%
| Year | Revenues | Pct Increase | Avg Pct Increase |
| 1990 | 1031.96 | ||
| 1991 | 1054.99 | 2.23% | |
| 1992 | 1091.21 | 3.43% | 2.83% |
| 1993 | 1154.34 | 5.79% | 3.82% |
| 1994 | 1258.57 | 9.03% | 5.12% |
| 1995 | 1351.79 | 7.41% | 5.58% |
| 1996 | 1453.05 | 7.49% | 5.90% |
| 1997 | 1579.23 | 8.68% | 6.29% |
| 1998 | 1721.73 | 9.02% | 6.64% |
| 1999 | 1827.45 | 6.14% | 6.58% |
| 2000 | 2025.19 | 10.82% | 7.00% |
| 2001 | 1991.08 | -1.68% | 6.21% |
| 2002 | 1853.14 | -6.93% | 5.12% |
| 2003 | 1782.31 | -3.82% | 4.43% |
| 2004 | 1880.11 | 5.49% | 4.51% |
| 2005 | 2153.61 | 14.55% | 5.18% |
| 2006 | 2406.87 | 11.76% | 5.59% |
| 2007 | 2567.98 | 6.69% | 5.65% |
| 2008 | 2523.99 | -1.71% | 5.24% |
| 2009 | 2104.99 | -16.60% | 4.09% |
| 2010 | 2162.72 | 2.74% | 4.03% |
| Average | 4.03% |
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Starting from the land of unicorns and rainbow farts in estimating tax revenues does not do any service to the country. The CBO may be non-partisan, but they’re also wearing rose-colored glasses!
