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Tag Archives: Unemployment

Real Work Force – 03/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for March 2013 this week showing a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate.  Our friends at ZeroHedge calculated that the Real Unemployment Rate is now 11.6% instead of the FedGov’s drop from 7.7% to 7.6%.  The actual Labor Force declined by 496,000 and those not in the Labor Force increased by 660,000.

FedGov and ZeroHedge calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?

RWF - 20130331 - Real Work Force - 01

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

.Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

RWF - 20130331 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20130331 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20130331 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on April 6, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 02/28/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

Previously, after the release of monthly Unemployment Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I had done a couple of analyses looking at the labor force participation rate — the number of people the FedGov thinks is working versus the number of people that should be working.  After giving some further thought to the issue, it occurred to me that it still didn’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  It did not answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?

.Real Work Force - 20130228 - 01 .

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction in 5,678,367 jobs.

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Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

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Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 20130228 - 01.

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

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Labor Force - 20130228 - 01

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Population Estimate from census.gov

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Population Estimate - 20130228 - 01

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If I forget to put out this analysis in future months, please remind me.  Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Employment v Unemployment – December 2012

The Unemployment Rate is out again today with no change at 7.8% (apparently November 2012 was revised up to 7.8%), but there was an actual uptick in the labor force (155,319,000 up to 155,511,000).  The Labor Force Participation Rate remained unchanged at an anemic 63.6% (down from 65.7% at the start of Obama’s 1st term).

We can be heartened at the fact that another major exit from the work force did not occur.

Employment v Unemployment 20121231 - 01

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The graph continues to look ugly:

 
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Posted by on January 4, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Employment v Unemployment – Nov 2012

With another 350,000 leaving the work force, the useless figure called the unemployment rate ticked down again in November 2012 to 7.7%.  Previous months, however, were also revised downward, and we can expect the same for the current month.  Problems?

For instance, labor force participation fell sharply. Indeed, the sole reason for a decline in the unemployment rate was a drop of 350,000 in the number of people in the labor force.

So, why even pay attention to the Unemployment Rate.  There is only one graph that really matters and shows a much more true picture of the Employment situation in the U.S. — The Labor Force Participation Rate:

Compliments of the Obama Stimulus, Auto Bailout, Recovery Summer, TARP, Cash For Clunkers, EPA, High Gas Prices and every other constraint the Obama Administration has put on our economy, the Labor Force Participation rate has fallen off the cliff and continues to decline:

Employment v Unemployment 20121130 - 01

Obama’s Labor Force Participation Rate is the lowest since Jimmy Carter’s 63% rates — another complete failure as a jobs president.

Yes, I would gladly go back to the Clinton Era 67% Employment Rates, 18% of GDP Spending Rates, and his reduction to 15% in the Capital Gains Tax Rate… …and if we didn’t increase to Clinton’s 39% Income Tax Rate, his figures would be even better!

 
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Posted by on December 8, 2012 in Taxes, Unemployment

 

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Unemployment Benefits Stimulate The Economy — Not So Much

The knee-jerk and common sense reaction — to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat’s claim that Unemployment Payments stimulate the economy — is, correctly, to roll your eyes and assert that it is nothing more than a politically motivated claim.

h/t cascadepolicy.org

A few short years ago, in 2004-2005, the Democrats were complaining about how bad the situation was for the unemployed under President Bush when the Unemployment Rate was 4% – 5% — not the 9% – 10% under the Obama regime.  That visit to the history books alone answers the question as to whether or not the claim of its stimulative affect is ideologically motivated.

But, alas, a good Conservative / Tea Partier wants the facts, and here are a slew of them from the Cascade Policy Institute — Oregon’s Premier Policy Think Tank.

Here’s the scoop on the stimulative negative affect of Unemployment Insurance.

 

 

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An $105,000,000,000 Earmark

Yesterday, to my dismay, the Republicans miserably failed the first test of the Voter Mandate that shellacked the Democrat Congressional majority on November 2, 2010.  In the process, they created an $105 Billion earmark!  How?

A simple task faced the Congress and the President here at the end of 2010:  Pass a law to make permanent the tax rates that had been in effect since 2003.

Simple.

On 11/2, the informed electorate agreed w/ the Republicans that taxes must not increase during a recession.  They agreed that the US does not have a taxing problem; the US has a spending problem.  They agreed that it was time for a major change.  They agreed that Congress and the President must simplify the process of Legislating and create Bills that covered as single topic (ala Health Care and Student Loan Industry takeover).

And the first task for the Republicans, after the election and during the lame-duck Democrat power-grab, was to hold firm on taxes.  The electorate was buoyed when the Republican Senate Leaders promised to filibuster any legislation brought to the floor until the 2001/2003 tax rates were extended or made permanent.

But alas… …epic fail.

For weeks the Republicans had held firm in an effort to make the Democrats pay (i.e. deficit neutral) for any extension of unemployment benefits… …and were winning the debate.  But, in a spasm of perceived weakness, they capitulated to the Democrats’ will and added the 13-month Unemployment Benefit Extension to the agreement to keep tax rates where they are.

So, in effect, we have an $105,000,000,000 earmark added to a simple bill to continue the same rate of taxation.  We have the Democrats succeeding in taking another $105,000,000,000 from our children and grandchildren.  And, we have an epic failure on the part of the Republicans.

For all the posturing in support of the Tea Party, Conservative principles, low taxes, massive spending cuts, and regulation reform… …the first step out of the gate for the newly enlightened Republican Party is an $105 Billion Earmark.

$105,000,000,000 = Average $290 Per Week * 7,000,000 Beneficiaries * 13 Months * 4 Weeks

…and that doesn’t include the Government’s administrative costs.

$105,000,000,000
 

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